2024 in Review – A Deepening Public Crisis

The terrorist military, which illegally seized power on February 1, 2021, suffered losses on all fronts in 2024. Besides faring poorly in politics and international diplomacy, it suffered many military defeats. Military defeat became the junta's worst blow: the fall of two regional military command headquarters, in Lashio in Shan State and Ann in Rakhine State, and the capture of more than 90 towns by revolutionary forces caused many divisions even among junta supporters.  At the same time, repression of the public increased and the socio-economic impact grew larger.

The Illegitimate Conscription Law

To replenish its depleted troop strength, terrorist junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing activated the People's Military Service Law[1] on February 10, 2024. The law was enacted as Law No. 27/2010 under the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), signed by council chair Senior General Than Shwe. Then, on February 13, it also activated the Reserve Forces Law[2], and on the same day formed the Central Body for Summoning People's Military Servants [3] to implement it.

Terrorist junta spokesperson Major General Zaw Min Tun said the conscription law would cover ages 18 to 35, that about 5,000 people would be called up per intake, and that the families of current military personnel are already part of the reserve forces[4]. He also said that according to the 2019 census there are 6.3 million men and 7.7 million women eligible[5]. Under the law, women aged 18 to 27 are covered, while men up to 45 and women up to 35 are covered if they work as teachers, engineers or in another profession. Service is set at two years, three years for skilled professionals, and up to five years during a state of emergency, and those summoned who refuse to serve face up to five years' imprisonment.

Revolutionary forces urged and invited those who find it difficult to evade the conscription law to come and join the revolution in whatever role they can.

Two months after activating the People's Military Service Law, the terrorist junta began the first intake on April 8, having started summoning trainees on March 9[6]. The junta claimed that those attending had registered voluntarily, and although it did not announce how many trainees were in Intake 1, graduation ceremonies were held at the training schools of each regional military command on June 28. Intake 2 was then opened on May 14 and Intake 3 on June 25, and General Maung Maung Aye, Vice-Chair of the Central Body for Summoning People's Military Servants and Joint Chief of Staff (Army, Navy, Air), who has since been reassigned, said that those who failed to report when summoned for previous intakes would face action under existing law.

The terrorist junta then held People's Military Service Intake 4[7] on August 5, Intake 5[8] on September 9, Intake 6[9] on October 21, Intake 7[10] on November 26 and Intake 8[11] on December 23. Domestic media reported that the conscription training covers physical fitness, drill, infantry small arms, military tactics in theory and practice, field engineering, field administration and general subjects, taught week by week.

When calling people up under the conscription law, the terrorist junta promised that graduates would be assigned only in or near the areas where they live, but at graduation the new recruits were forcibly sent, without notice to their parents and families, to front lines with intense fighting, including northern Shan, Chin, Karenni and Kachin[12]. Because of this, more people became unwilling to serve, and there were increasing cases of people leaving the country, paying bribes to evade service, and paying local administrators and authorities to remove their names from or strike them off the lists[13]. [14]

Although the terrorist junta claims trainees are voluntary registrants, on the ground, to obtain the numbers needed for training, the junta and its affiliated Pyu Saw Htee militias and administrators have carried out arrests, and data compiled online[15] shows that from the law's activation on February 10 to December 26, up to 11,355 people were arrested nationwide. Most of those arrested were from Rakhine, Sagaing, Mandalay, Bago, Shan, Magway and Yangon, and more than 10,000 were arrested during the daytime. Apart from Rakhine, Sagaing and Magway, most of these places are areas not yet under revolutionary territorial control, where the terrorist junta is better able to carry out forced portering and arrests. After the law took effect, people also began leaving the country by every possible means to avoid military service.

On May 14, the junta's Ministry of Labour also announced that agencies that sent workers abroad must take responsibility for bringing all Myanmar workers abroad back home for military service[16]. The announcement said agencies will be held responsible for those who do not return[17], and that if workers do not return even after three years, step-by-step measures will be taken, including fines, suspension of the right to submit new job demand letters, licence revocation and blacklisting.

As the intake numbers rose and fewer people entered military service, the terrorist junta began targeting young people going abroad to work. It tried to block young people going to work abroad by all kinds of means, mainly targeting those leaving for manual labour. It restricted passport renewals and replacements, imposed various orders and directives at departure airports, and resorted to extortion.

In early June, to replenish its depleted troop strength, the terrorist junta used the Reserve Forces Law to summon retired veterans back to duty. The retirement age is set at 62, and the Reserve Forces Law requires service within five years. According to 2019 figures, Myanmar has around 250,000 retired veterans, 28 percent of the country's pensioners.  Some pensioners who left the military have returned to serve because of the shortage of outside employment and economic hardship following the country's conflicts, while others have been forcibly recalled[18].

On July 30, the Ministry of Labour announced that, from August 1, Myanmar workers going to Thailand would only be granted extensions and redeployed under the bilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) system if they showed proof of legal remittances to their families in Myanmar or to their own bank accounts. From August 1, people leaving Yangon airport with overseas employment (PJ) and visit (PV) passports began to be blocked and turned back if their documents were incomplete. Most were aged 23 to 32 (covered by the conscription law), and were barred from leaving for not paying taxes, not remitting their wages, or lacking an Overseas Worker Identification Card (OWIC).[19]

On August 28, the Ministry of Labour under the terrorist junta issued an order[20] requiring Myanmar migrant workers abroad to remit 25 percent of their wages through official channels, either monthly or once every three months.  It stated that those who do not comply will be refused passport renewals, barred from leaving the country and denied OWIC cards[21]. Before this, in mid-August, the Ministry of Labour summoned and questioned around 300 labour agencies in Naypyitaw. It then pressured them to have 25 percent of the wages of workers they had sent abroad remitted back through military-controlled banks and remittance channels[22].

The public crisis has grown enormously because of economic turmoil, currency depreciation, rising commodity prices, rising unemployment, rising unnecessary expenses (bribes to stay off the conscription lists), and urban residents having to pay off local administrative bodies to settle arrests made on the pretext of guest registration. On June 24, 2024, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) stated that of the country's total population of 55.8 million, 42 million are facing poverty and more than 13 million are facing food insecurity[23]. The statement also said the country's middle class had fallen by about half in the three years since the military coup. A World Bank statement on June 12 also warned that 32 percent of Myanmar's population is living in poverty and another third is at risk of falling into poverty.

With the terrorist junta continuously recruiting new soldiers and opening military training, young people facing a general crisis encounter restrictions and extortion when going abroad to work through legal channels, and likewise face many difficulties and hardships when leaving through illegal channels to work in neighbouring countries. They have to pay authorities in those countries to stay, face deportation if arrested, and also face labour exploitation[24].

The Natural Disaster Crisis

 At a time when the country's people were already suffering on every front from the terrorist junta's forced recruitment and economic hardship, the aftermath of Typhoon Yagi, which struck Vietnam, caused flooding in central Myanmar and southern Shan State. According to UN figures, more than 630,000 people were affected by the floods[25], and the junta announced that 226 people died. The flooding affected 59 towns in nine regions and states and caused extensive damage and losses; the resulting breakdown in transport and communications also hit the goods transport sector, with Thailand–Myanmar freight charges reaching 25 to 27 million kyat per 12-wheel truck[26], further increasing the impact on the public.

References:

[1]https://www.mlis.gov.mm/mLsView.do;jsessionid=A652041C0EB3726C30E8B2687737F340?lawordSn=954

[2]https://www.mlis.gov.mm/mLsView.do;jsessionid=976D49203E2DADC2B0E3E6540B789EE5?lawordSn=956

[3]https://www.moi.gov.mm/announcements/52051

[4]https://www.facebook.com/share/v/B77exZFzd9Lb9MWL/?mibextid=Z719m6

[5]https://www.moi.gov.mm/news/52063

[6]https://news-eleven.com/article/293158

[7]https://news-eleven.com/article/296857

[8]https://news-eleven.com/article/297910

[9]https://news-eleven.com/article/296697

[10]https://news-eleven.com/article/297807

[11]https://news-eleven.com/article/298619

[12]https://www.facebook.com/khitthitnews/posts/%E1%80%95%E1%80%BC%E1%80%8A%E1%80%BA%E1%80%9E%E1%80%B0%E1%80%B7%E1%80%85%E1%80%85%E1%80%BA%E1%80%99%E1%80%BE%E1%80%AF%E1%80%91%E1%80%99%E1%80%BA%E1%80%B8-%E1%80%A1%E1%80%95%E1%80%90%E1%80%BA%E1%80%85%E1%80%89%E1%80%BA-%E1%81%81-%E1%80%9E%E1%80%84%E1%80%BA%E1%80%90%E1%80%94%E1%80%BA%E1%80%B8%E1%80%86%E1%80%84%E1%80%BA%E1%80%B8-%E1%80%91%E1%80%B1%E1%80%AC%E1%80%84%E1%80%BA%E1%80%81%E1%80%BB%E1%80%AE%E1%80%9E%E1%80%B1%E1%80%AC-%E1%80%85%E1%80%85%E1%80%BA%E1%80%9E%E1%80%8A%E1%80%BA%E1%80%A1%E1%80%9E%E1%80%85%E1%80%BA-%E1%80%99%E1%80%BB%E1%80%AC%E1%80%B8%E1%80%80%E1%80%AD%E1%80%AF-%E1%80%9B%E1%80%BE%E1%80%99%E1%80%BA%E1%80%B8%E1%80%99%E1%80%BC%E1%80%B1%E1%80%AC/834471388780469/

[13]https://burma.irrawaddy.com/article/2024/03/18/381052.html

[14]https://www.bbc.com/burmese/articles/c9ed4553ggyo

[15]https://lookerstudio.google.com/u/0/reporting/7197dead-281f-4414-9372-70fe37ee044b/page/b3YqD?s=n-GzNNTp0sI

[16]https://yktnews.com/2024/11/191877/

[17]https://www.facebook.com/myanmarlabournews/posts/%E1%80%95%E1%80%BC%E1%80%8A%E1%80%BA%E1%80%95%E1%80%9B%E1%80%B1%E1%80%AC%E1%80%80%E1%80%BA-%E1%80%A1%E1%80%9C%E1%80%AF%E1%80%95%E1%80%BA%E1%80%9E%E1%80%99%E1%80%AC%E1%80%B8%E1%80%90%E1%80%BD%E1%80%B1-%E1%80%85%E1%80%85%E1%80%BA%E1%80%99%E1%80%BE%E1%80%AF%E1%80%91%E1%80%99%E1%80%BA%E1%80%B8%E1%80%9B%E1%80%94%E1%80%BA%E1%80%86%E1%80%84%E1%80%B7%E1%80%BA%E1%80%81%E1%80%B1%E1%80%AB%E1%80%BA%E1%80%81%E1%80%BC%E1%80%84%E1%80%BA%E1%80%B8%E1%80%81%E1%80%B6%E1%80%9B%E1%80%95%E1%80%AB%E1%80%80-%E1%80%85%E1%80%AC%E1%80%81%E1%80%BB%E1%80%AF%E1%80%95%E1%80%BA%E1%80%9E%E1%80%80%E1%80%BA%E1%80%90%E1%80%99%E1%80%BA%E1%80%B8%E1%80%95%E1%80%BC%E1%80%8A%E1%80%B7%E1%80%BA%E1%80%81%E1%80%BB%E1%80%AD%E1%80%94/1009330784572521/

[18]https://myanmar-now.org/mm/news/53125/

[19]https://burma.irrawaddy.com/news/2024/08/07/388421.html

[20]https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbid=876617784565829&set=pcb.876612194566388

[21]https://www.facebook.com/khitthitnews/posts/%E1%80%95%E1%80%BC%E1%80%8A%E1%80%BA%E1%80%95%E1%80%9B%E1%80%B1%E1%80%AC%E1%80%80%E1%80%BA-%E1%80%99%E1%80%BC%E1%80%94%E1%80%BA%E1%80%99%E1%80%AC%E1%80%A1%E1%80%9C%E1%80%AF%E1%80%95%E1%80%BA%E1%80%9E%E1%80%99%E1%80%AC%E1%80%B8%E1%80%99%E1%80%BB%E1%80%AC%E1%80%B8-%E1%80%9C%E1%80%AF%E1%80%95%E1%80%BA%E1%80%81%E1%80%9C%E1%80%85%E1%80%AC-%E1%81%82%E1%81%85-%E1%80%9B%E1%80%AC%E1%80%81%E1%80%AD%E1%80%AF%E1%80%84%E1%80%BA%E1%80%94%E1%80%BE%E1%80%AF%E1%80%94%E1%80%BA%E1%80%B8%E1%80%80%E1%80%AD%E1%80%AF-%E1%80%99%E1%80%BC%E1%80%94%E1%80%BA%E1%80%99%E1%80%AC%E1%80%94%E1%80%AD%E1%80%AF%E1%80%84%E1%80%BA%E1%80%84%E1%80%B6%E1%80%9E%E1%80%AD%E1%80%AF%E1%80%B7-%E1%80%95%E1%80%BC/876612194566388/

[22]https://myanmar-now.org/mm/news/58008/

[23]https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=484058860699249

[24]https://www.facebook.com/MizzimaDaily/posts/pfbid02f4WZARj92pi9irTtcJvejtPShrT3XHFCADh4Furd7YHcQ2aGicDuuDRJiG6y96Tdl

[25]https://www.bbc.com/burmese/articles/c04plnydwwdo

[26]https://burma.irrawaddy.com/news/2024/09/12/390436.html

Photo by Ajay Karpur on Unsplash