A look back at 2024 - The Increasingly Visible Interventions of Neighboring Countries

In 2024, interventions by neighbouring countries became more visible. China's interventions in particular became more apparent throughout 2024. Toward the end of 2024, moves by Thailand and India were also seen.

Having suffered heavy troop losses and lost many camps in the north, the terrorist junta held negotiations through Chinese mediation. After the third round of talks on January 10 and 11, 2024, a ceasefire was announced on the night of the 11th, agreeing on three points: an immediate ceasefire by both sides' troops, no firing or contact between them, and resolving any disputes or shooting through dialogue[1]. They also agreed that no offensives would be launched against military council camps and strategic hills in northern Shan, that the military council would not carry out air or artillery attacks on places controlled or captured by the three Northern Alliance members, and that the security of Chinese citizens along the China–Myanmar border and Chinese investments inside Myanmar would not be harmed or damaged.

After the agreement was announced, the MNDAA and TNLA continued implementing reconstruction and administrative work in the territories they had captured. As the terrorist military began carrying out air strikes and artillery attacks on areas controlled by the TNLA and MNDAA, on June 24 TNLA General Secretary Major General Tar Bone Kyaw released a video explaining the military and political situation in northern Shan, saying that "the military has violated the Haigeng Agreement and we have a duty to defend the people as best we can."

The day after that statement, on June 25, the TNLA and allied forces attacked Kyaukme and Nawnghkio in northern Shan and Mogoke Township in Mandalay Region, launching the second wave of Operation 1027; the agreement collapsed, showing the failure of a ceasefire brokered through outside intervention.

After the fall of the Northeastern Command in the second wave of Operation 1027, another Haigeng meeting on the northern Shan operations was held through Chinese mediation in Kunming, China, on July 31; the three brotherhood allies attended but the terrorist junta did not, and on August 1 it announced a further six-month extension of the state of emergency. In addition, on August 5 the terrorist junta leader claimed that the drop bombs and shoulder-fired rockets used by the MNDAA and TNLA had been technologically upgraded with the help of foreign mercenary technicians, and that arms and ammunition factories had been set up in some ERO territories along the China–Myanmar border to supply and sell weapons to PDFs and other EROs[2].

Preparations were made to hold the (sixth) Haigeng talks on August 8, but the terrorist junta again failed to attend. On the same day, Mr. Deng Xijun, Special Envoy for Asian Affairs of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, came to Naypyitaw and met the junta leader. The junta said they discussed stability in border areas, crackdowns on online scam gangs and illegal businesses, and preparations for the election. On August 14, the 11th day after the fall of the Northeastern Command, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi came to Naypyitaw, met former dictator Than Shwe and junta leader Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, and said China wants effective protection of the security of Chinese personnel and projects in Myanmar[3].

According to a statement on the trip, Wang Yi said during his meeting with former dictator Than Shwe that China "has always supported holding the general election smoothly on a nationwide scale and restarting the democratic transition process", and during his meeting with the junta leader that China "firmly supports the implementation of the five-point roadmap".

On August 27, Chinese Special Envoy for Asian Affairs Deng Xijun met leaders of the United Wa State Party/Army (UWSP/UWSA), Vice-Chair U Kyauk Kaw Ann, Deputy General Secretary Pauk Aik Kham and Deputy Head of the Central Committee Office Maw Zit Yun, in Pu'er, southern Yunnan. According to leaked minutes of the meeting, he told the Wa leaders that China does not want the Myanmar military to collapse and will never accept victory by the NUG and PDFs, that if Kokang troops did not withdraw from Lashio the blockade of the Kokang region would not be lifted and even tougher measures would be taken. He also pressured and threatened the Wa to cooperate more with China, warning that Wa State would also face blockade and sanctions if it did not.

In explaining four positions on the Kokang (MNDAA), he said China does not recognize the capture of Lashio; that the MNDAA is leading as the vanguard for the fall of the military council; that, pretending to cooperate with the Chinese government, it is spreading the idea of "Han" Chinese liberation and secretly colluding with PDFs to plan the capture of Mandalay; and that, falsely claiming to be cooperating with the Chinese government against scam gangs, it used Operation 1027 not only to capture Laukkai and the whole Kokang region but also to invade and occupy Lashio. Deng Xijun also said that if the MNDAA did not immediately withdraw from Lashio, it would be crushed like the fifth family of the Kokang region, and that the TNLA would also face sanctions and blockade.

Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun also set four points the Wa leaders must follow: (1) absolutely no arms sales to the MNDAA; (2) no vehicles going from Wa State into the Kokang region may carry weapons, military supplies, fuel, medicine or food; (3) carefully screen the details of everyone entering and leaving the Kokang region, and prevent military and technical experts from entering via Wa State; and (4) absolutely no arms sales to PDFs, Karenni and southern armed groups. He threatened and coerced the Wa leaders that otherwise the Chinese government would suspend all livelihood support it provides to Wa State, suspend trade with Wa State without limit, and suspend all cooperation on mining, industrial development and hydropower projects[4].

At the Mekong–Lancang Cooperation meeting held in Chiang Mai, Thailand, on August 16, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi also warned the international community that there are three red lines on Myanmar that cannot be crossed and must be firmly upheld: Myanmar must not fall into internal instability and civil war, must not be separated from the ASEAN family, and must not allow outside forces to arbitrarily infiltrate and interfere. 

Like the MNDAA, the PSLF/TNLA was also pressured to halt the fighting in northern Shan by the Ruili City National Security Committee[5] on August 29.

On September 4, the MNDAA issued a statement that could fend off the indirect pressure coming through the Wa and direct pressure, saying it would not cooperate militarily or politically with the NUG[6] and would not launch offensives on Mandalay and Taunggyi. The statement appeared only briefly on its Facebook page and was reposted two weeks later on September 18. On October 9, in a statement in Chinese[7], the MNDAA issued four restrictions, saying some foreign countries are planning to interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs: no travel without permission to ASEAN and Western countries including the United States; no participation in international events on Myanmar affairs; no interviews without permission with media owned by Western countries including the United States; and no statements in the organization's name on confidential matters that may arise in Myanmar's political landscape or on Myanmar political affairs. 

To ease the hardship faced by local residents because of China's blockade, the PSLF/TNLA also announced that from October 25 it would exempt from tax goods imported into the state from Myanmar (Mandalay)[8].

Even under Chinese pressure and the terrorist junta's counter-attacks, the MNDAA and TNLA continued building administrative mechanisms in the towns they had captured and controlled. Around the third week of November, reports emerged that MNDAA leader Peng Daxun was being held by the Chinese government[9] while in China, drawing growing criticism. Then, on November 19, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said at a regular press conference in Beijing that he had asked for permission to receive medical treatment in China, had received treatment and was recovering.

Because of intensifying Chinese pressure, the BPLA and other allied forces fighting alongside the Kokang army had to relocate their troops from Kokang-controlled territory to the TNLA-controlled towns of Nawnghkio, Kyaukme and Hsipaw.

On October 17, Chinese Special Envoy Deng Xijun met some KIA leaders in Yingjiang, Yunnan Province, and China pressured the KIA to halt its offensives where they stood. On October 18, the day after the meeting, China closed[10] the border gates adjoining KIA-controlled territory. The KIA in turn imposed counter-blockades on the border gates closed by China. Then, in early December, the KIA launched offensives on Bhamo, Kachin State's second city, and Mansi, and has now gained a foothold inside Bhamo town. Bhamo is also the town where the Chinese government is implementing the "China–Myanmar Ayeyarwady River Economic Corridor" or "China–Myanmar Waterway Belt" project. While KIO Chair General N'Ban La and a delegation were visiting China at the Chinese government's invitation, on the morning of December 13 the KIA reopened the Kachin–China border gates[11].

On November 25, the PSLF/TNLA issued a position stating that, while upholding the right to self-defence regarding military tensions, it is always ready to meet and talk to find solutions to problems[12].

The MNDAA Military Committee also issued a "Statement on Willingness to Resolve Internal Military Conflict Through Political Means"[13] on December 3, stating that the MNTJP/MNDAA will not establish a new country; that from that day on it will not initiate offensives and will actively cooperate with China's mediation; that the military council must halt the air and ground offensives it is conducting across Myanmar; that it will send high-level representatives to talks and hopes to resolve conflicts and differences through political means; and that while it supports political means, the MNDAA will continue to uphold its right to self-defence as before.

The Arakan Army (AA) also built relations with India, with which it shares a border. On February 29, 2024, it met[14] Mizoram State legislator Vanlalvena on the border between the two countries. The meeting concerned road construction that is part of the Myanmar–India Kaladan project, a section that will connect Lawngtlai and Zorinpui in eastern Mizoram with Paletwa in Chin State. The meeting also began after the AA captured Paletwa, where the project had been suspended because of armed conflict in Myanmar. The Mizoram Chief Minister also said during a meeting with Chin people in the United States on September 4 that it should befriend the AA for the project[15]. Although India's central government has made no statement about the AA, India's Zee News[16] reported that Indian intelligence is monitoring the Arakan Army's attacks on the terrorist junta using Bluetooth and Wi-Fi technology, and that it also has a presence in Mizoram.

On September 23, Reuters reported that the AA, along with the KIA, the Chin National Front (CNF) and the NUG, had been invited to a "Constitution and Federalism" seminar[17], funded by the Indian government and organized by the Indian Council of World Affairs (ICWA), to be held in November.

As the Arakan Army's territorial gains grew stronger, China, which has invested billions of dollars in the Kyaukphyu project, prepared to establish a joint security company to protect its investments and citizens. On October 22, a committee to draft a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for implementing this was formed[18]. This came as preparations for the project in Kyaukphyu, the second most important point after Lashio, which the junta lost, under the China–Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), a key part of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

On December 19–20, an informal consultation on Myanmar held in Bangkok, Thailand, was sponsored by the Thai government and attended by foreign ministers and deputy ministers from neighbouring India, China, Bangladesh and Laos, as well as some ASEAN foreign ministers. The junta's foreign minister was also invited to the consultation.

References:

[1]https://t.me/threebrotherhoodalliance/780

[2]https://www.bbc.com/burmese/articles/c20l1lp5k2lo

[3]https://www.bbc.com/burmese/articles/c20l1lp5k2lo

[4]https://myanmar-now.org/mm/news/58133/?fbclid=IwY2xjawF0tLhleHRuA2FlbQIxMAABHf2jXpQ-Bcq13nfaAif1oqf4nR4h1-nqlCetuOUidFpcpfazHPWjvDVuQQ_aem_SEQ6swoU9vun2RsMJuBOBQ

[5]https://t.me/spmnewsagency2019/10134

[6]https://myanmar-now.org/mm/news/57840/

[7]https://www.facebook.com/kokang0123/posts/pfbid02XhTPTF7BK71qwdeaPpagJHKtKPPbSvDWrjHpCGyGKq9PA7CNMvLkzrm3FGNENFT3l

[8]https://t.me/taangtv2023/3985

[9]https://burmese.voanews.com/a/mndaa-leader-myanmar-rebel-leader-medical-care-kumin-/7868973.html

[10]https://www.bbc.com/burmese/articles/cly4kk7jk5po

[11]https://bur.mizzima.com/2024/12/13/41377

[12]https://t.me/taangtv2023/4119

[13]https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=903358505232857&set=pcb.903358578566183

[14]https://myanmar-now.org/mm/news/49761/

[15]https://www.dmgburmese.com/%E1%80%9E%E1%80%90%E1%80%84%E1%80%BA%E1%80%B8/thoeanarg.html

[16]https://burma.irrawaddy.com/news/2019/09/13/203747.html

[17]https://westernnewsmm.com/news/5305/

[18]https://bur.mizzima.com/2024/12/03/40563

Photo by Ajay Karpur on Unsplash