A Look Back at 2024
2024 was a year defined by military victories. The junta lost two of its 14 regional military command headquarters, suffered many territorial losses along the border areas, and faced significant military threats in the central dry zone as well. As if punishing the public for the revolutionary forces' military successes, the junta also continued deliberately targeting civilians without distinguishing between civilian and armed targets, a strategy it has long used and continues to use.
When defining how civil wars end, outcomes are usually categorized as a revolutionary victory, a victory for those holding power, or a negotiated settlement, and a military victory by one side is usually described as a decisive ending. Negotiated settlements are also commonly distinguished between outcomes reached through agreement and ceasefires without firm agreement. The international community usually pushes for such arrangements. In 2024, the involvement of neighbouring countries became more visible. It was a year in which their calculations about the timing and form of ending the fighting along their borders became more apparent. In particular, even a ceasefire period brought about through China's mediation broke down easily. That conventional pressure mechanisms also failed reflects more realistically how the landscape has changed.
Although a year can be marked off by the calendar, the waves of rapidly changing history and the territorial lines that are gradually fading or becoming more visible continue to flow. Amid the uncertainty, what there is to hold onto is only the vision for the future.
Even if the revolution's military victories are not loudly proclaimed, they have made visible military and political cooperation, and the beginnings of governance, an obligation that follows, can now also be seen. But not everything is going well. Some current problems, and some issues for the future to reflect on, be cautious about and watch, have been passed on to 2025.
The Revolutionary War's Successes
Neighbouring Countries' Increasingly Visible Interventions
Politics Dominated by State Strengthening and Unity Building
Cautions in the Wake of Military Victories
A Deepening Public Crisis
Photo by Ajay Karpur on Unsplash
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